[分享] Dynamical system model predicts when social learners impair collective performance 哲学

原文发表于PNAS。https://www.pnas.org/content/118/35/e2106292118。如果遇到Access问题,请借助Sci-hub.se.

Abstract A key question concerning collective decisions is whether a social system can settle on the best available option when some members learn from others instead of evaluating the options on their own. This question is challenging to study, and previous research has reached mixed conclusions, because collective decision outcomes depend on the insufficiently understood complex system of cognitive strategies, task properties, and social influence processes. This study integrates these complex interactions together in one general yet partially analytically tractable mathematical framework using a dynamical system model. In particular, it investigates how the interplay of the proportion of social learners, the relative merit of options, and the type of conformity response affect collective decision outcomes in a binary choice. The model predicts that, when the proportion of social learners exceeds a critical threshold, a bistable state appears in which the majority can end up favoring either the higher- or lower-merit option, depending on fluctuations and initial conditions. Below this threshold, the high-merit option is chosen by the majority. The critical threshold is determined by the conformity response function and the relative merits of the two options. The study helps reconcile disagreements about the effect of social learners on collective performance and proposes a mathematical framework that can be readily adapted to extensions investigating a wider variety of dynamics.

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文中抽象出了两种概念:独立决策者与社会学习者(或者处于这两种状态的比例混合)。模拟数据显示仅有独立决策者的比例对集体决策的质量有显著的影响。

值得一提的是,假如提出第三种概念:这种个体倾向于根据其他人的意见做出出相反的决策,他们依然属于社会学习者。有兴趣的可以把这一项加入统计试一试——他们也不影响集体决策的质量。

有必要提出的是,假设上的绝对优的选择是不存在的。因此文章仅仅导出了条件下的预测性。

7
9月13日 90 次浏览
2 个评论
NoStepOnSnek Life, Liberty, Property

这结果难道不是Obvious的么。从priori 推导得话就是这些人本来可以贡献的信息收集和计算能力没有贡献,导致整体能力下降。但是empirically做实验的话这基本不可能证出来(我不知道你怎么可能分辨出哪些人是群体学习者),过几天又会有结论相反的论文。

Neko #ΦωΦ

@NoStepOnSnek #156849 不知道为什么以前没人做过...

这篇文章比球形鸡砍掉的参数多多了,因此很容易想象到假如试着指导决策多么局限;假如成了自矜功伐的资本那又是意外的副作用了。

嘘,你不知道,Neko不知道,文章也提到了他不知道。

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